SMB Math-Epidemiology/Math-Immunology Subgroups Mid-Year Mini Virtual Conference
February 27-28, 2022
Theme: "Epidemiology meets Immunology and Vice Versa - Linking Math Epidemiology to Math Immunology”
NOTE: All times are in Eastern Time (New York Time)
Meeting ID: 93652555826
Sunday, February 27, 2022
Contributed talks (7 Talks - 20 minutes + 4 minutes question and Speaker Change)
Session Chair: Aurélie Akossi
Md Rafiul Islam, Iowa State University, USA
Accounting for ethnicity improves outcomes associated with COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies
Loreniel E. Anonuevo, University of the Philippines Mindanao - AMDABIDSS-Health
Modeling the COVID-19 dynamics in Davao City, Philippines under different variants-of-concern
Md Shahriar Mahmud, State University of Bangladesh, Bangladesh
SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Bangladesh: A study on the host population & Rohingya population
Sarita Bugalia, Central University of Rajasthan, India
Mathematical modeling of intervention and low medical resource availability with delays: Applications to COVID-19 outbreaks in Spain and Italy
Lihong Zhao, University of California, Merced, USA
Assessing Re-opening Strategies for Mitigating COVID-19 Transmission on College Campuses
Prashant Kumar Srivastava, Indian Institute of Technology Patna, UK
Nonlinear Dynamical Behaviour of an Infectious Disease Model: Effect of Information, Saturated Treatment and Incubation delay
Peter Rashkov, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Sofia, Bulgaria
How much complexity is needed to model epidemic patterns of dengue
11:50 - 12:25 PM
Lunch Break
12:25 - 12:35 PM
Official Opening Remarks
12:35 - 1:25 PM
Keynote Address 1 (Introduction: Julie Spencer)
Dr. Stanca M. Ciupe, PhD, Professor, Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech.
The role of testing in COVID-19 control
Abstract: Vaccination is considered the best strategy for limiting and eliminating the COVID-19 pandemic. The success of this strategy relies on the rate of vaccine deployment and acceptance across the globe. As these efforts are being conducted, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is continuously mutating, which leads to the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and lower response to vaccines. One important question is whether surveillance testing is still needed in order to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an increasingly vaccinated population. In this talk, I will present multi-scale immuno-epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and use them to determine the effects of vaccine uptake; surveillance testing with tests of different sensitivity, cost, testing frequency, and delay in test return; and testing strategies in limiting an outbreak with variants of increased infectiousness. Biography: Check https://math.vt.edu/people/faculty/ciupe-stanca.html
1:25 - 1:30 PM
Health Break
Contributed talks (6 Talks - 20 minutes each + 4 minutes question and Speaker Change)
Session Chair: Peter Rushkov
Chapin S. Korosec, York University
Longitudinal Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Specific T Cell Cytokine-Producing Responses for 1 Year Reveals Persistence of Multi-Cytokine Proliferative Responses, with Greater Immunity Associated with Disease Severity
Gergely Röst, University of Szeged, Hungary
A hybrid PDE–ABM model for viral dynamics with application to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza
Ruth Bowness, University of Bath, UK
Modelling within-host tuberculosis infection using a hybrid multiscale individual-based model
Hana Dobrovolny, Texas Christian University, USA
Using mathematical models to estimate virus-mediated cell fusion rate
Lale Asik, University of the Incarnate Word, USA
Nutrient-mediated pathogen infectivity and host immunity in primary producers
Claus Kadelka, Iowa State University
Evaluating the United States COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategy, and how the optimal strategy might change for future roll-outs of variant-specific vaccines
3:55 - 4:00 PM
Health Break
4:00 - 4:50 PM
Keynote Address 2 (Introductions: Miranda Teboh-Ewungkem)
Dr. Jane Heffernan, PhD, Faculty of Science - Department of Mathematics & Statistics, York Research Chair (Tier II), Multi-Scale Methods for Evidence-based Health Policy; Director of the Centre for Disease Modelling
Modelling Immunity
Abstract: Immunity is generated from infection and vaccination. While immunity is gained at the individual level, we can also think of immunity as a population-level quantity as well, specifically when discussing seroprevalance and herd immunity. In this talk we will discuss the multi-scale considerations of immunity, and of immunity modelling. Influenza and COVID-19 will be of particular focus. Biography: Check https://jmheffer.mathstats.yorku.ca/
4:50 - 5:00 PM
Health Break
5:00 - 6:00 PM
Panel Session: Honoring Prof. Fred Brauer: This session honors Prof. Fred Brauer who passed away on October 17, 2021 in Vancouver, BC, Canada. Prof. Brauer was a kind man, a good mentor who made impactful contribution to the field of Mathematical Biology, especially in Mathematical Epidemiology. He will be truly missed. This session brings together some of the colleagues and past students who worked with him. Also see In Memoriam: Fred Brauer: https://math.wisc.edu/2021/10/18/in-memoriam-fred-brauer/
Panelists:
- Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez (Retired)
- Prof. Daniel Coombs (Head, Mathematics Department, Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia)
- Prof. Zhilan Feng (NSF-DMS Program Director and also Department of Mathematics, Purdue University)
- Dr. Jummy Funke David (Postdoctoral Research Visitor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics and the Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM). York University, Canada)
- Prof. Aziz Yakubu (Department of Mathematics, Howard University);
Moderator: Jane Heffernan
Monday, February 28, 2022
NOTE: All Times are in Eastern Standard Time (NEW York Time)
Contributed talks (9 Talks – 15 minutes + 1 minutes of questions/ speaker change)
Session Chairs: Joshua Caleb Macdonald and Girma Mesfin Zelleke
Baylor Fain, Texas Christian University, USA
Viral master-equation: Connecting previous and current computational virology research methods
Yuyi Xue, University of Ottawa& Xi'an Jiaotong University, Canada and China
Coupling the within-host process and between-host transmission of COVID-19 suggests closing schools is critical
William Kwabena Osei, University of Energy and natural resource, Ghana
Mathematical dynamics of covid-19 with vaccination.
Bevelynn Williams, University of Leeds, UK
Multi-scale modelling of bacterial infections
Girma Mesfin Zelleke, University of Buea, Cameroon
A Mathematical Model of Immune Responses for Bacterial Infection: A Mathematical and Numerical Study of Active Complement System Response
Leah LeJeune (Kaisler), University of Louisiana at Lafayette, USA
Effect of cross-immunity in a multi-strain cholera model
Bime Markdonal Ghakanyuy, University of Buea, Cameroon
Investigating the Impact of Multiple Feeding Attempts on Mosquito Dynamics via Mathematical Models
Audrey McCombs, Iowa State University, USA
Structure Matters: Network topology and disease dynamicsJoshua Caleb Macdonald, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, USA
Joshua Caleb Macdonald, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, USA
Consilience in FMDV ecology: Transmission dynamics in host populations reflect viral replication and immune response rates within hosts.
11:25 - 11:30 PM
Health Break
11:30 - 12:20 PM
Keynote Address 3 (Introductions: Amber Smith)
Dr. Joshua T. Schiffer, M.D., M.Sc., Professor, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch; Professor, Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutch; Associate Professor, Department of Medicine, University of Washington; Attending Physician, Infectious Disease Consulting Service, Seattle Cancer Care Alliance
A herpes virologist’s guide to SARS-CoV-2
Abstract: Human herpesviruses are chronic persistent infections which have dramatically different patterns of transmission, reactivation and disease manifestations. Over the last decade, our group has used viral dynamic modeling to capture the interactions of several of these viruses (HSV-2, CMV, EBV and HHV6) with the host immune system. We also developed methods to simulate therapies and various prevention modalities. These studies allowed our group to move rapidly into COVID-19 research to study the timing and intensity of immune responses against SARS-CoV-2, the optimal timing of therapy, the role of superspreading, the impact of masking and vaccination on transmission dynamics, the dynamics of endogenous antibody response against the virus and the local epidemiology in King County, Washington.
Biography: Check here https://www.fredhutch.org/en/faculty-lab-directory/schiffer-joshua.html
12:20 - 12:45 PM
Lunch Break
Contributed talks (2 talks – 20 minutes + 4 minutes question/speaker change)
Session Chair: Julie Spencer
Andrea Pugliese, University of Trento, Italy
Immune memory build-up in models of repeated infections; how does this affect epidemic dynamics?
Narmada Sambaturu, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA
Role of genetic heterogeneity in determining the epidemiological severity of H1N1 influenza
1:40 - 2:50 PM - “The Debate” Cluster Topics: (1) How much do we really know about immunology? (2) Does incorporating multiple scales really bring enhanced understanding of a system? (3) What is the value of data-free and/or data-driven models?
Panelists:
- Prof. Fred Adler (University of Utah)
- Prof. Lauren Childs (Virginia Tech)
- Prof. Veronika I. Zarnitsyna (Emory University)
Chaired by Prof. Adler
2:50 - 2:55 PM
Health/Coffee Break
Contributed talks (5 talks – 20 minutes + 4 minutes question/speaker change)
Session Chair: Julie Spencer
Tahmineh Azizi, Florida State University, USA
How does vaccine control the spread of infectious diseases?
Glenn Ledder, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Modeling Vaccination for a Novel Disease
Imelda Trejo, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA
A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data
Jacques Bélair, Universite de Montreal, Canada
Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Elderly Residences
Michael Pablo, Gladstone Institutes / UCSF, USA
Modeling and validation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission reduction by a therapeutic interfering particle
4:55 - 5:00 PM
Health Break
Keynote Address 4 (Introductions: Lauren Childs)
Dr. Olivia Prosper, PhD, Assistant Professor of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Tennessee
Multi-scale modeling of malaria parasite diversity
Abstract: Malaria, a parasitic disease spread by mosquitoes, imposes an enormous health and economic burden across the globe. The Ross-Macdonald mathematical framework for the transmission dynamics of malaria, developed in the early 20th century, has informed control policies for this disease and provided the basis for numerous population-level models for vector-borne disease of varying complexity. In the world of infectious disease modeling, there has been an increased interest in linking within-host pathogen dynamics to between-host transmission. I will introduce a multi-scale model of malaria that tracks parasite life cycle dynamics and parasite sequences within each mosquito and each human, as well as the transmission of these genetically diverse parasites between these two populations. The degree of parasite diversity has important implications for the transmissibility of a malaria infection and the severity of the disease for the infected human. We investigate how this diversity changes over time, and how it differs based on differences in environmental and epidemiological characteristics of the system. Biography: Check here https://math.utk.edu/people/Olivia-Prosper/
5:50 - 6:00 PM
Closing Remarks
6:00 - 6:15 PM
Happy Hour
Organizers:
Dr. Miranda Teboh-Ewungkem (Department of Mathematics, Lehigh University): Chair: Math-Epi Subgroup
Dr. Julie Allison Spencer (Los Alamos National Lab): Co-Chair/Secretary: Math-Epi Subgroup
Dr. Stanca Mihaela Ciupe (Department of Mathematics, Virgina Tech): Chair: Math-IMMU Subgroup
Dr. Amber M. Smith (The University of Tennessee Health Science Center). SMB Board of Director.